Global M&A momentum builds in 2026 as megadeals surge, but acquirers confront a new AI "winner's paradox"--Bain & Company M&A Midyear Report

Global M&A rose 41% year-over-year to $2.4 trillion in the first five months of 2026, putting the market on track for its second-highest year ever, on the heels of the near-record rebound of 2025 At the current pace, global dealmaking is set to top $5.3 trillion in 2026, which is just below the 2020 record of $5.6 trillion Strategic transformations and a surge in megadeals are driving the M&A resurgence. Deals worth more than $10 billion grew 52% in number and 53% in value year-over-year Acquirers face a new "winner's paradox": how to deliver an ambitious M&A agenda as well as an AI transformation at the same time, as AI's impact on dealmaking this year extends well beyond the technology sectorThe great rebound in global mergers and acquisitions that began last year is proving no flash in the pan. After M&A rose 40% to $4.9 trillion in 2025 – the second-highest annual total on record – global deal value continued to climb in the first five months of 2026, surging 41% year-over-year to $2.4 trillion in the period, and putting the market on track for its second-highest year ever, Bain & Company reports today in its 2026 M&A Midyear Report.The M&A resurgence remains broad-based across markets and sectors and is grounded in the strategic transformations companies need to compete in a rapidly changing world, Bain concludes. The wave of dealmaking in 2026 is being propelled by executives making strategic choices for long-term efficiency, resilience, adaptability and growth as they respond to disruptions including the accelerating transition to an AI-driven economy, slowing economic growth and higher inflation, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – the latest manifestation of the emerging post-global order. In this fast-changing business landscape, Bain finds that deals increasingly need to move the needle on performance to stay on the short list of corporate priorities as corporate leaders also navigate competing demands for capital.At the same time, Bain also cautions that acquirers in M&A transactions, especially those pursuing the megadeals that now dominate the market, confront a new "winner's paradox": how to pair an ambitious M&A agenda with the transformation programs that AI disruption demands. As companies buy to create enhanced scale and resilience for a fast-changing world, many are simultaneously taking the early steps of AI transformations. In turn, Bain notes that the combined challenges are prompting executives to ask how they can successfully manage an AI transformation alongside, or through, a massive integration of two businesses, but also how they could afford not to do so."The great M&A rebound of 2025 was no one-off blip, and the strategic logic driving it has only intensified," said Suzanne Kumar, executive vice president of Bain & Company's global M&A practice. "Companies are pursuing bold deals to secure the scale and capability they need for a fast-changing world. The new challenge is that the AI boom fueling many of these deals, well beyond the confines of the technology sector, is also creating a paradox: it has rarely been harder to get large, complex transactions right, yet they represent the single biggest opportunity if you do."A broad-based upturn across sectors and marketsStrategic M&A value rose 36% year-to-date, even as overall valuations held flat at a median 11.6 times enterprise value/EBITDA and deal count ticked up by only a modest 2%, Bain notes. All strategic sectors saw dealmaking expand, with energy & natural resources, industrials, and healthcare & life sciences contributing the most growth in absolute deal value. Financial sponsors had a slower start, meanwhile, with deal value down 9% through May. Venture capital and corporate venture capital deal value, by contrast, surged by 206%, powered by OpenAI's latest $122 billion funding round and a 36% increase in deal count.Megadeals continue to lead the strategic market as companies buy scale and capability to equip themselves a fast-changing and turbulent global business environment, Bain reports. Deals worth more than $10 billion grew 52% in number and 53% in value year-over-year. Their funding mix has shifted to a historical high of 35% stock-plus-cash, pushing the share of all-cash deal value to a cyclical low of 55%.Regionally, Europe became a global M&A hot spot in the first half of the year as companies pursued strategic deals to sharpen their local and global competitiveness. Megadeals drove a 77% year-over-year gain across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) through May 31, as European companies announced transactions spanning domestic consolidation, regional scale, and global reach. Orange, Bouygues, and Iliad's $24 billion offer for Altice France exemplifies domestic consolidation; Italy's UniCredit revived its approach to Germany's Commerzbank to build regional scale; and Finland's Kone launched a $34.4 billion bid for Germany's TK Elevator—combining TK's US exposure with Kone's strength in Asia-Pacific to create a leading global player.AI creates the "winner's paradox" for M&A strategiesAI's impact on dealmaking is extending well beyond the technology sector. The proposed $119 billion merger of US utilities NextEra Energy and Dominion Energy is driven in part by the explosive growth in energy-hungry data centers, with the companies emphasizing how the operating and financing benefits of their combined scale will help build the power generation required to meet surging large-load demand.For CFOs and other corporate executives focused on delivering value from complex M&A, the paradox is acute: how to support an AI transformation alongside a massive integration – and how to afford not to attempt to deliver this. Bain's analysis concludes that the leaders of winning companies need to define a multi-year capital plan that draws a clear line between strategy and capital spending, addressing both an M&A-enabled growth strategy and investments in AI-enabled workflow redesign and workforce modernization.Waiting is not an option, Bain's report argues. Neither the right strategic deal nor an AI transformation can be put on hold in a fast-changing world. With Bain data showing that large M&A deals can frequently take 36 months or more from announcement to full integration of the two businesses, integration programs must instead serve as critical unlocking moments to advance the AI agenda through workflow redesign and modernization, the report advocates. Bain's detailed analysis of integration timelines also reveals that deals above $10 billion take roughly seven months from announcement to close – and another 24 to 36 months to realize the bulk of run-rate cost synergies.Alongside the "winner's paradox", Bain also finds that there is a payoff for companies. AI is increasing the value at stake in M&A: leading integration programs are using AI to identify and confirm cost-synergy opportunities two to three times more quickly, and with more ambitious targets, than traditional outside-in diligence suggested, the report notes."Integration has always carried both peril and promise, but the AI overlay is raising the stakes on both sides," Suzanne Kumar adds. "The companies that win will treat a transaction the moment to accelerate their AI ambitions."Six questions for deal successAs AI changes how executives think about M&A, Bain's report poses six fundamental questions that will form the foundation for successful deals: Do we have a clear view of how AI impacts the deal thesis? Every deal thesis should address how AI will affect the target's business model and enhance the combined entity—recognizing that some run-rate synergies will arrive faster, while an integration that absorbs AI-transformation initiatives will carry greater one-time costs. Where can AI provide a faster, no-regrets path to more M&A value creation? Acquirers are unleashing AI analytics on procurement contracts, supply chain networks, R&D portfolios, and charts of accounts to confirm cost-synergy opportunities two to three times faster, and to surface insights that enable tailored cross-selling and go-to-market coverage from Day 1. Where can planning for AI today give us more options in the long run? This is a multiyear journey, so leaders should resist incrementalism—picking where AI will matter most and working backward from a bold, aggressive vision that fully utilizes AI, including agentic tools that are only barely familiar today. How should we use this transaction as an unlocking moment for broader transformation? The best programs treat integration as a rare opportunity to make ambitious changes at the speed the market requires—knowing the short list of levers that drive growth and take out cost, making focused bets where the value is greatest, and redesigning processes for efficiency first. Are our leaders prepared to support our people through this disruption? Major integrations and AI transformations share a common requirement—bold leaders who set the tone from the top, bring a clear and inspiring vision, tolerate mistakes in pursuit of innovation, and answer the question employees most want addressed: what does this change mean for me? How should the way we manage integration programs evolve? AI can generate tailored workplans and checklists to kick-start an integration and then surface deviations as implementation proceeds, freeing the central integration management office to stress-test value-creation plans, facilitate complex decisions, and lean in to support change management.Addressing these questions, Bain's report concludes, can spell the difference between companies that achieve successful integrations and AI transformations in tandem and those that find themselves playing by yesterday's rules for deals.Media contactsTo arrange an interview or for any questions, please contact:Dan Pinkney (Boston) — Email: [email protected]Gary Duncan (London) — Email: [email protected]Ann Lee (Singapore) — Email: [email protected]

Global M&A momentum builds in 2026 as megadeals surge, but acquirers confront a new AI "winner's paradox"--Bain & Company M&A Midyear Report

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