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Uncertainty in the market: Experts do not have an unanimous forecast for the key rate – Cbonds release

December 14, 2018 Cbonds
Today, the eighth meeting of the Bank of Russia will be held on monetary policy this year, which will decide on the amount of the key rate. In September, the Bank of Russia increased its key rate by 25 basis points – up to 7.5% per annum; according to the results of the October meeting, the rate did not change. In addition to the traditional survey of analysts, Cbonds voted in a mobile application – 58% of those who voted expect a rate increase by 25 basis points, 37% do not expect a change, and only 5% of participants believe that the rate will be decreased. Analysts also disagree and predict two possible scenarios for events – an increase in the indicator to 7.75% or its maintenance at the level of 7.5%. As the main reasons for the change in the key rate, economists note the likely resumption of foreign exchange intervention and the strengthening of inflation expectations. Among the arguments in favor of maintaining the current indicator is the level of inflation close to the target of the Central Bank and the stabilization of the financial markets.
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Index Name — Russia Key rate of CBR
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