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Source Research
12 październik 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- MoF preparing for repayments
After a break, the MoF held another unscheduled auction yesterday offering two-month, local-currency bills, and three bills denominated in US dollars with four-month, eight-month, and 16-month maturities. FX reserves were increased in government accounts prior to large repayments scheduled for the next two weeks; however, this auction will not solve all the MoF's FX needs.
10 październik 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- MoF increases borrowings
As expected, yesterday's auction resulted in an increase in borrowings, and rates increased for some instruments. Total budget proceeds were UAH1.5bn, US$127m, and EUR30m, which is very positive prior to large debt repayments. The Ministry's decision to hold rates unchanged when demand was very low brought about yesterday's result. With larger demand, the MoF moved rates up last week and continued this movement yesterday.
09 październik 2018
ICU Weekly Insight -- NBU satisfied with stress tests
NBU is satisfied with the results of the 2018 stress tests (ST) and assets quality review (AQR) of the Ukrainian banking system. Only eight banks require capital injections totaling UAH6.1bn under the base-case scenario.
03 październik 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- Yields and proceeds up
Large domestic debt repayments scheduled for October and November have encouraged the Ministry of Finance to take more radical actions in the primary bond market, and to change its view on interest rates. Yesterday, the MoF borrowed more funds than during the last month: x2.5 more in local currency and x1.4 in FX. Cut-off rates were increased for three out of five offered bonds: for the three-month and two-year local-currency bills, and for the nine-month USD-denominated bills. 
02 październik 2018
ICU Weekly Insight -- State budget performance improved
As of the end of August, state budget execution has improved significantly compared with the first half of 2018. We expect that by the end of the year, the government will be able to keep the budget deficit within the planned 2.5% of GDP.
27 wrzesień 2018
ICU Economic Insight-UkrFinForum-2018: On the eve of 2019 elections and IMF deal
ICU's 5th annual Ukrainian Financial Forum took place in Odesa on 20-21 September. As in previous years, world-famous speakers from politics, industry, and academia discussed Ukraine's achievements and pending reforms. However, this time, more attention was on the global macroeconomic situation, international trade issues, new trends in asset management and investment, and Ukraine's venture-capital landscape and startup potential. In many cases, Ukraine's 2019 elections and negotiations with the IMF dominated the discussion.
26 wrzesień 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- In looking for a compromise
The regular primary auction resulted in unchanged yields that the MoF uses for the bids acceptance, and low budget proceeds. But this week, we also saw a decline in demand, which is not positive for the Ministry prior to large debt repayments. 
ICU Weekly Insight -- Real GDP rises 3.8% YoY in 2Q18
The State Statistics Service improved its estimate of the real GDP growth in 2Q18 by 0.2ppt to 3.8% YoY and 1% QoQ SA. Ukraine's economy will expand 3.5% in 2018 thanks to solid domestic demand, further growth of investments, and favourable external conditions.
19 wrzesień 2018
ICU Bond Market Insight -- Market insists on compromise
Yesterday's demand for new bonds slightly tightened with interest rates correcting to a lower level, but many bids were with rates above the cut-off level. This caused a low amount of budget proceeds to be raised, significantly lower than demand. As the result, the MoF received US$4m and UAH142.8m of proceeds, which was less than last week. 
ICU Weekly Insight -- IMF may exchange Ukraine's programme
Exchange of the current EFF programme with a stand-by facility significantly lowers risk of Ukraine's ability to service external debt in 2018-19.
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