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  • Alfa Bank
  • E.Gavrilenkov and A.Kudrin
  • E.Gavrilenkov and A.Kudrin
  • Goldman Sachs Asset Management
  • Promsvyazbank
  • Raiffeisen Bank
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  • DNB ASA
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Source Research
22 październik 2019
Hong Leong Bank Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot
Hong Leong Bank Daily Market Watch
OCBC Asian Credit Daily
OCBC Daily Treasury Outlook
DNB ASA Daily Macro Brief
21 październik 2019
Erste Group Poland Weekly Focus | Did FX market overreact?
Janney Fixed Income Daily Market Commentary
Ashmore Investment Management Weekly investor research
UniCredit 7 P.M.
UniCredit Morning Meeting
Eavex Capital Ukraine Fixed Income Weekly (Oct. 21, 2019)
Banca IMI Listini positivi, focus sulle trimestrali europee
Banca IMI Settimana dei Mercati - 21.10.2019
Alfa-Bank Ukraine Latest developments in Ukraine (18 October 2019)
Erste Group Poland | Instant Comment
Eavex Capital Ukraine Market Monitor (Oct. 21, 2019)
Banca Nazionale del Lavoro (BNL) Il Morning Call Daily
MPS Capital Services Daily Market Strategy
ROSBANK Café et Croissant. Russian Daily
Goldman Sachs Asset Management Global Fixed Income Weekly
DNB ASA Daily Macro Brief
OCBC Asian Credit Daily
OCBC Daily Treasury Outlook
Hong Leong Bank Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot
Hong Leong Bank Daily Market Watch
18 październik 2019
Janney Fixed Income Daily Market Commentary
UniCredit 7 P.M.
Banca IMI Mercati in attesa del voto del Parlamento su Brexit
Banca IMI Apertura debole per i mercati
E.Gavrilenkov and A.Kudrin Sovereign Debt: OFZ Rally is a Problem for the Finance Ministry
Description
The OFZ market rallied a lot in the first half of October and as of now the whole yield curve is traded below the CBR key rate. A rapid disinflation is not only making investors bullish on the ruble interest rates, but also pushing the CBR to revise its macroeconomic forecasts out of schedule. Next year the regulator may also revise its longer-term inflation target and “neutral” range for the key rate. Markets are likely to start to price in these events already this year, which may move the yield curve significantly lower as supply remains limited. If so, OFZs may lose their shine and the Finance Ministry may face problems with the execution of the borrowing program in 2020. To avoid it, the government could revise fiscal rule and decrease the amount of OFZ issuance, which will by all means be positive for the ruble sovereigns market.

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