FAQ
Komentarze rynkowe
| Source | Research | |
|---|---|---|
| 18 luty 2019 | ||
| Erste Group | CEE Market Insights | |
| DNB ASA | Daily Macro Brief | |
| ROSBANK | Café et Croissant. Russian Daily | |
| Hong Leong Bank | Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot | |
| Hong Leong Bank | Daily Market Watch | |
| OCBC | Daily Treasury Outlook | |
| Maybank | Daily Research | |
| 15 luty 2019 | ||
| Alfa-Bank Ukraine | Latest developments in Ukraine (15 Feb 2019) | |
| Janney | Fixed Income Daily Market Commentary | |
| Raiffeisen Bank Aval | Focus Ukraine (January 2019) | |
| Erste Group | Week ahead | Eurozone – Interest rates, yields, inflation and Spain | |
| Erste Group | CZ Instant Comment: GDP growth positively surprised in 4Q | |
| Republic of Turkey Prime Ministry Undersecretariat of Treasury | Update on Turkish Economy | |
| DNB ASA | Daily Macro Brief | |
| ROSBANK | Café et Croissant. Russian Daily | |
| OCBC | Asian Credit Daily | |
| OCBC | Daily Treasury Outlook | |
| Hong Leong Bank | Weekly Market Highlights | |
| Hong Leong Bank | Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot | |
| Hong Leong Bank | Daily Market Watch | |
| 14 luty 2019 | ||
| Janney | Fixed Income Daily Market Commentary | |
| E.Gavrilenkov and A.Kudrin |
Forecasting Russia: Lost in Uncertainty
Description Last week Rosstat published quite unexpected statistics on Russia’s economic performance in 2018 which even exceeded a rather optimistic estimate of the 2018 GDP growth released few days earlier by the Economics ministry. The 2.3% real GDP growth indicated by Rosstat came as a big surprise.
A much better reported performance in 2018 still leaves unanswered the question about the 2019 growth trajectory – it is not clear if the economy is decelerating, accelerating or just drifting sideways. The CBR did not change its growth outlook for this year and expects the economy to expand 1.2-1.7%.
The impact of increased VAT on inflation was limited in January as inflation reached just 1.0% m-o-m and fell to a more usual 0.1% w-o-w in the past three weeks, while the CBR expected the effect to last longer.
Even though it is likely that the Russian inflation will decelerate faster than the CBR anticipates and may fall below 4.5% already by year-end, the regulator, lost in overall uncertainty, will remain cautious with regard to key policy rate cuts this year, which will not come until autumn (other factors being equal). FX interventions stipulated by the fiscal rule will continue to offset the high policy rate, which will enable the economy to muddle through.
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| OCBC | Asian Credit Daily | |
| Hong Leong Bank | Fixed Income Daily Market Snapshot | |
| Hong Leong Bank | Daily Market Watch | |
| Finance Ministry of Ukraine | Ukraine: Investor meetings (January 2019) | |
| Erste Group | Credit Markets Weekly | Trend towards narrower spreads sustainably broken? | |
| Erste Group | Poland: Economy expanded 4.9% y/y in 4Q18 | |
| Republic of Turkey Prime Ministry Undersecretariat of Treasury | Update on Turkish Economy | |
| DNB ASA | Daily Macro Brief | |
